专访苏世民：2021，峰回路转

作者：陈慧隽

支持：远川研究所投资组

在投资圈，苏世民的名字无人不知。这位拥有中文名的老外，在国内有着非常不错的人缘，清华大学苏世民书院由他最初捐赠设立，新书封面印刷着“周小川和马云推荐”，他创办的黑石在国内商业地产领域也有一席之地。

回顾苏世民的成长历程，从耶鲁到哈佛，他给老师和同学留下的印象是：充满动力、雄心、自信和诚信。正是在这种精英教育的熏陶下，他确立了经世济民、不甘平庸的人生信念，也奠定了日后黑石精英管理、追求卓越的文化体系。

一路走来，黑石并非一帆风顺，苏世民告诉远川研究所，“我记得黑石成立之初，我给关系最好的联系人写了四百多封信介绍公司，但没人回复，也没人想给我们业务”。

转折点来自保诚的1亿美元投资，“我们知道，接下来其他人也会跟投，我永远不会忘记那个时刻”。功夫不负有心人，黑石的第一支基金吸引了大都会人寿、通用电气、日本日兴证券等行业巨头。从此，苏世民开启了属于自己的时代。

35年来，秉承着永不赔钱、做多中国、严守纪律的投资理念，苏世民带领黑石度过一次次危机。截止2019年末，黑石管理规模达5710亿美元，在2020胡润全球富豪榜上，苏世民以1400亿元的财富名列第54位，是华尔街当之无愧的“私募之王”。

今年3月，中信出版社出版了苏世民的新书《苏世民：我的经验与教训》。4月，远川研究所也有幸对苏世民做了一次独家专访，就全球经济如何摆脱衰退进行了探讨。

回到当下，全球疫情持续蔓延，中国经济挑战仍在，苏世民当时乐观的看法与全球化的视野依旧值得我们学习与借鉴，故再次推送供读者参考研究。

1. 

远川研究所：What do you think is the biggest difference between this financial crisis happened in 2020 and that in 2008 ? What measures have you taken to fight against the crisis?

您认为今年此次经济危机与2008年金融危机相比，最大的区别是什么？您采取了什么样的措施来应对危机？

Schwarzman：I have been through a lot of different market cycles in my career, and without a doubt this one is far reaching. However, it is important to remember that the economic impact of this crisis is the result of voluntary decisions to cease business activity – not a normal downturn.

苏世民：在我的职业生涯中，我已经历经了很多次市场周期波动，毫无疑问这次危机的影响是深远的。然而，我们依然要记住，今年全球经济所遭受的打击是人们自愿暂停商业活动的结果，而不像2008年那样是一次寻常的衰退。

Schwarzman：Another fundamental difference between now and 2008 is that the US banking system today is on much stronger footing. While some companies and sectors will experience difficulty, the system is in better condition. Governments around the world appear to be providing strong support and economic stimulus in the near term.

苏世民：另一个根本区别，是美国的银行体系相较四年前更加稳固，尽管今年有些行业和公司会遭遇困难，我们的系统的运行状态仍优于2008年的情况。除此之外，各国政府似乎也都在短期内提供了强有力的支持和经济刺激。

Schwarzman：As Blackstone, first and foremost, we are deeply saddened by the human impact of COVID-19. Our primary focus has and will continue to be on the safety of Blackstone’s people and the employees of our portfolio companies. We’re hopeful that the measures to control the spread will have a meaningful impact and things can soon begin returning to normal, as they have started to in China.

苏世民：对黑石集团而言，首先，我们为新冠疫情对人类健康的影响深感悲哀。我们的第一要旨始终是保障黑石以及被投公司员工的安全，希望全球能像中国一样有效控制病毒的蔓延，尽快回到正轨。

Schwarzman：Blackstone is in exceptionally strong shape. The firm has no net debt, significant capital reserves, fund structures that prohibit short term redemptions by our investors, and over $150 billion of dry powder to deploy in high-quality companies during the current market dislocation. This structure is what helped us weather past crises (such as the Global Financial Crisis) and still deliver outstanding performance for our investors around the world.

苏世民：黑石是一个强大的公司。在当前这样一个市场失序的阶段，我们没有净负债，资本储备充足、基金管理结构成熟，可以避免挤兑现象发生，对高质量公司的现金待投量超过一千五百亿美元。正是这样的架构帮助我们度过了包括08年金融危机在内的各种突发事件，并在今天继续为我们全球范围内的投资者提供出色回报。

Schwarzman：Our confidence in this approach remains stronger than ever. In the midst of the crisis, we are actively working with our portfolio company leadership teams to help them manage through this difficult time.

苏世民：在如今的经济危机中，我们的信心比以往更强，我们正积极地与投资公司的领导团队合作，以帮助他们渡过难关。

Schwarzman：The US government’s financial stimulus package does all the right things – it provides a direct infusion of money for the unemployed and individuals in society who need immediate support, gives significant funding for small businesses so they can keep people hired and on their healthcare plans, and supports larger corporations so they can bridge this period of shutdown.

苏世民：与此同时，美国政府的经济刺激方案亦有所作为——它为失业者以及任何需要紧急援助的人提供了直接的金钱支持，给予小公司大量资金以确保其员工不被裁员，医疗计划的正常运行，并且支援大公司挺过这段休业期。

Schwarzman：The initial financial stimulus bill is probably not the full amount of support that the US economy will ultimately need, but as a start, it is really big. The Federal Reserve, our central bank, is doing a variety of things to make sure credit is flowing through the US economy. This, combined with the stimulus bill passed by Congress, are significant and positive efforts to ensure the health of our economy through this period.

苏世民：尽管最初的刺激法案金额或许不足以使美国经济完全恢复，但作为一个开始，它的效果不可小觑。美联储也正竭尽全力地确保经济运行中的信贷流动，这样的措施加上国会通过的经济刺激法案，将极大程度地维持美国经济的健康发展。

Schwarzman：You are seeing countries across the developed world take similar steps. China, Korea and Japan – which faced this crisis before Western countries – have responded very well to the virus. I think you will see countries looking to each other for examples on how to best respond.  

苏世民：你也看到了，很多发达国家在采取同样的措施。更早经历疫情的中国、韩国和日本已经做出了很好的示范。相信各国在接下来将会互相借鉴学习，以更好地应对这场疫情。

2. 

远川研究所：How zero or negative interest rate will affect our economy? In the future, what’s the best place for our money? What asset will you choose?

您认为零利率甚至是负利率将如何影响我们的经济？在未来，什么样的资产将是最优的投资选择？

Schwarzman：Even before the current crisis, there was a global trend towards low and even negative interest rates. I had some fear that this would leave countries in a challenging position during a downturn, like we are facing today. But right now, it is important that central banks do whatever they can to support global economies.

苏世民：其实早在危机到来之前，全球经济就已经有了零利率甚至是负利率的趋势。我有些担心负利率会使本就处于经济低迷期的国家雪上加霜，就像我们现在一样。但幸好现在全球的央行都在竭尽所能地支持经济发展。

Schwarzman：A low interest rate environment can make alternatives more attractive for investors. Blackstone has proven to have a strong track record across cycles, including in challenging times like the Global Financial Crisis.

苏世民：一个低利率的环境会使替代性投资品变得更有吸引力。事实证明，黑石集团在包括全球金融危机在内的各经济周期中都保持着良好的业绩记录。

3. 远川研究所：Is the widening gap between the rich and the poor an endogenous problem of the capitalist system? What role does globalization play in this process.

贫富差距的扩大是否是资本主义的内生性问题？全球化在这样一个阶段扮演着怎样的角色？

Schwarzman：I agree that this is an issue. But I believe it is less about income inequality than income insufficiency. A large portion of the United States and other countries lack savings and simply are not earning enough for a variety of reasons. One of these is globalization, where wealth moved around the world. This does not mean that capitalism is broken.

苏世民：贫富差距扩大确实是一个问题，但问题可能出在穷人收入不够上，而不是收入不平等导致的。很多人都不储蓄，或是因为种种原因收入不足。全球化可能是其中的一个原因，因为财富在全球范围内流动，但这并不意味着资本主义的破灭。

Schwarzman：I have spoken about steps that could be taken in the US to solve this, including increasing the minimum wage. The biggest long-term solution is to improve our education system to make sure that we are preparing our population for the jobs of the future that rely on technical skills and computer science.

苏世民：我之前已经提过减少贫富差距的办法，比如提高最低工资水平。最行之有效的长期解决方案应当是提升我们的教育体系，以确保大家能够依靠自己的技术、知识来找工作。

4. 

远川研究所：How will the Sino-US relations develop after the COVID-19 epidemic? Will the epidemic cause another resurgence of anti-globalization waves?

这次疫情过后，中美关系将如何发展？反全球化浪潮是否会再次引发？

Schwarzman：There is some sensitivity on both sides relating to the current crisis. But at the end of the day, when the immediate health concerns pass, the world will want to restart their economies and it will be mutually beneficial for the US and China to work together.

苏世民：疫情当下，中美双方都有些敏感。但最终，随着对疫情的顾虑消除，世界各国将重启经济，中美合作将恢复互利共赢。

5. 

远川研究所：Do you think China and the United States can avoid the Thucydides trap?

您认为中国和美国能摆脱修昔底德陷阱吗？

Schwarzman：I believe they can. The phase one trade agreement demonstrated the ability to work together on major areas of disagreement. I believe both countries recognize it is in their mutual benefit to iron out tensions.

苏世民：我相信他们可以。第一阶段的贸易协定显示出中美在主要分歧领域已经达成一致，我相信两国都意识到消除紧张关系对双方都有利。

6. 

远川研究所：Some media said that you are the bridge between American and Chinese like Kissinger. Do you take that role?

之前有媒体说你像基辛格一样，是连接中美关系的桥梁。你会接受这样的设定吗？

Schwarzman：When asked by the US Administration to help in the trade conversations, I was happy to do so. I am proud to have many great relationships in China and was able to serve as a messenger at times when asked by the Administration.

苏世民：当美国政府要求我在贸易对话中提供帮助时，我感到很开心。我很自豪自己不仅能够在中国拥有关系和人脉，还能充当美国政府的信使。

7. 

远川研究所：What is the future layout and plan of Blackstone Group in China? What do you think of the future of China's economy?

黑石集团在中国的未来展望和计划是什么？你认为中国经济未来将驶向何方？

Schwarzman：Blackstone has been active in China since 1992 and will continue to look for compelling, long term investment opportunities.

苏世民：自1992年，黑石一直活跃在中国市场，未来，我们将继续在这里寻找有吸引力的长期投资机会。

Schwarzman：Though China is several months ahead of the United States in dealing with COVID-19, it is still too early to predict the exact near-term economic outlook. There is no question that this pandemic will have economic impacts that last beyond the initial period of controlling the virus. But I think by 2021, we will be through the vast majority of this, countries will be back at work with different levels of recovery, and we will eventually see economic growth rates similar to before the pandemic.

苏世民：尽管中国比美国早好几个月应对疫情，但要准确预测近期的经济前景仍为时过早。毫无疑问，这场流行病将对经济带来深远影响。预计到2021年，大多数难关都将过去，各国将以不同的程度逐渐恢复，我们最终将看到经济增长率回到疫情前水平。

8. 

远川研究所：There are lots of new-generation entrepreneurs in China, many of them are your friends, who impressed you most?

现在中国有很多新一代企业家，其中有不少人是你的朋友。谁给你带来的印象最深刻？

Schwarzman：I have met so many impressive entrepreneurs from China, it would be impossible for me to pick one. Entrepreneurs often play an outsized role when responding to unknown situations like today’s crisis. I’m confident that entrepreneurs – whether in the biomedical field or otherwise – will find innovative ways to treat, prevent or otherwise help society confront this problem.

苏世民：我见过很多令人印象深刻的中国企业家，让我选出一个太难了。在应对像今天这样未知的情况时，企业家往往会发挥巨大的作用。我相信，无论是在生物医学领域还是其他领域，企业家都将找到创新的方法来应对、预防或是帮助社会解决这一问题。

9. 

远川研究所：Blackstone owns a lot of commercial real estate in China, what do you think of China's real estate industry and house price?

黑石集团在中国拥有很多的商业地产，你对中国的地产业以及房价有什么看法？

Schwarzman：In real estate, we are high conviction investors behind themes that have strong tailwinds. For example, we continue to see compelling opportunities in logistics from the growth in e-commerce and demand for warehouses.

苏世民：在房地产领域，我们有很强的信心，顺应风口去投资。例如，由于电子商务的兴起，仓库的需求增长，我们在物流领域嗅到了很有吸引力的投资机遇。

Schwarzman：In China, we have warehouses that are located in key distribution hubs and leased to leading third-party logistics and Chinese tech companies. We’re also focused on Grade A office assets in China and more broadly in Asia, where we continue to see positive demand.

苏世民：在中国，我们将仓库建在主要的物流分销中心，并且把它们租给领先的第三方物流和科技公司。我们还着眼于中国和亚洲的A级写字楼资产，在其中看到了旺盛的需求增长。

10. 

远川研究所：What’s the key factor that makes the high return of Blackstone? What investment principles did you stick to?

黑石集团创造高收益率的关键因素是什么？你坚持着什么样的投资理念？

Schwarzman：People often smile whenever they hear my number one rule for investing, but it’s just that simple: Don’t lose money.

苏世民：我的第一条投资原则是：不要赔钱。人们通常会对它报以微笑，觉得过于简单，但其实就是这样。

Schwarzman：At Blackstone we have established an investment process that helps us accomplish that basic concept. Our investment decisions are all about disciplined, dispassionate, and robust risk assessment.

苏世民：在黑石，我们构建了一个投资流程来帮助实现这一基本概念，我们的投资决策都是建立在严格、冷静和稳健的风险评估上的。

Schwarzman：This discipline is even more critical in today’s environment with high levels of volatility and uncertainty. We must continue to focus on our process and the potential downsides of any decision we make on behalf of our investors.

苏世民：在当下高风险和高不确定性的市场环境中，这一条投资理念甚至更为关键。我们必须继续关注我们的投资流程，以及代表投资者所作出的任何决策的潜在负面影响。

11. 

远川研究所：The global financial markets are moving towards turbulence and chaos. How the Blackstone Group protect against the Black Swan events?

全球金融市场正在走向动荡和混乱，黑石集团将如何防范黑天鹅事件？

Schwarzman：It is impossible to predict truly unforeseen events like what we are experiencing today. But as a firm, Blackstone has built a culture that is constantly looking for and incorporating downside risks into our decision making process. We are also intentional about learning from our past experiences and applying that wisdom to each new deal. In my book I outline some of the key lessons I have learned over my career and how that has changed our approach to investing.

苏世民：我们无法预测未来，就像事前我们无法预测今年会发生疫情一样。但作为一家公司，黑石在做决策的时候，始终考虑到潜在的下行风险。我们同样有意地从过去的经验中吸取教训，并应用到之后的每一次交易中。在我的书里，我概述了自己在职业生涯中学到的一些重要经验，以及这些经验将如何改变我们的投资方式。

12.

远川研究所：What’s the most tough time in your life? And what’s the turning point?

你生命中最难度过的是哪一阶段？转折点是什么？

Schwarzman：My life and career have certainly not followed a clean, upward trajectory. I have had intense moments of doubt and disappointment, especially as we faced rejection from investor after investor in the first days of Blackstone. I remember writing more than 400 letters to my best contacts introducing Blackstone after Pete and I launched and no one responded or wanted to give us business.

苏世民：我的生活和事业显然没有遵循一道清晰向上的轨迹。我有过很多怀疑和失望的时刻，尤其是在黑石面世的头几天，我们不断地遭遇投资者的拒绝。我记得在彼得（Peter G. Peterson）和我成立黑石之后，我给我关系最好的联系人写了四百多封信介绍我们的公司，但没人回复，也没人想给我们业务。

Schwarzman：The turning point for Blackstone was when we received a commitment from Prudential – then one of the top investors in private equity – to invest in our first fund. We knew that others would follow. It is a moment I will never forget. Through my book, I hope to convey some of the key lessons from my life to help others.

苏世民：事情的转折点是我们收到了当时私人股本领域的顶尖投资方之一保诚公司的承诺，他们将投资我们的第一只基金。我们知道，接下来其他人也会跟投。我永远不会忘记那个时刻。我希望可以通过书传达一些自己从生活中学到的经验教训，从而帮助到别人。

13. 

远川研究所：You’ve said that Peterson is the person who infect you most. What’s the most important thing you’ve learned from him?

你曾说过彼得是带给你最大影响的人。你从他身上学到的最重要的东西是什么？

Schwarzman：Pete taught me the value of a great mentor and partner. I wouldn’t be where I am today without Pete’s guidance and friendship.  I have tried to follow his lead and play this role for others as well.

苏世民：彼得让我明白良师益友的价值。没有彼得的指导和支持，我不会有今天的成就。我试着以他为榜样，也为别人扮演这个角色。

想了解更多苏世民的经历，可以阅读他的新书《苏世民：我的经验与教训》。书中，苏世民对自己如何取得卓越成就、发挥影响力、追求有意义的人生进行了思考和总结，并对如何取得成功提供了切实可行的建议。

希望这本书能够给那些希望提升个人影响力、实现自我价值，或是志在建立具有独特文化的卓越组织机构人士以启迪。

全文完。感谢您的耐心阅读。

来……来个三连如何？